Want a Flu Shot?

Everyday, when you watch the news, you hear about the swine flu. Or, to be politically correct to swine, H1N1.

More specifically, we're hearing a lot about the H1N1 vaccine. News footage from across the nation shows desperate people waiting in long lines, hoping against hope to get the shot. It reminds me of those disaster movies, where there are thousands of people being left to die, while only a few people are saved. And since every good story has to have an antagonist, the news blew a story out of proportion about Wall Street firms who received shots for their employees, even while hospitals were running out.

It has gotten so bad that I usually just change the channel as soon as they start talking about swine flu. But recently, something struck me. The news was interviewing a lady who was lined up to get her swine flu shot, and she was aggravated that they ran out before her number came up. She had waited for over two hours, but she would be back to get her shot the next time around.

I wondered, what are the odds that this woman is going to die of H1N1? Don't know—statistics are not that readily available. But what we do know is that the chances that she will die of H1N1 are lower than dying of the regular flu. And the odds that she will die of the regular flu are 1 in 304,000. To put it into perspective, the odds that I would die from my relatively minor heart procedure earlier this year were one in 1,500. The odds that you will die from a lighting strike are one in 79. The odds that you will die from taking a prescription drug are one in 3,000 (meaning that you're more likely to die from an adverse reaction to the flu shot, than actually dying from the flu?). Point is, most people have a lot more to worry about than dying of the flu.

What are the odds that she, or any other woman in America, will die of heart disease? 1 in 10. Heart disease is the number one killer of women in America. It is caused by any number of things, most of them preventable. Smoking. Obesity. Inactivity. High cholesterol. High blood pressure.



On television, I see a lot of people lining up to get the H1N1 vaccine, and some of them are quite obese. I don't see these same people lining up to have a chance to join a gym, or go for a run. I don't see them waiting in line for the chance to eat more fiber, or to consume fewer calories. I don't see people getting angry at big American corporations because they lost out on a chance to drink less alcohol, eat fewer french fries, or smoke fewer cigarettes.

Granted, there is some evidence indicating that obese people are more likely to be affected by the swine flu than non-obese people. See this article out of Salt Lake City.

To be clear, the chances that an adult woman in the United States will die of heart disease is one in ten. The odds are even greater for obese women. But aren't worried about that, they're panicked about getting a flu shot, when they are more likely to die from a lightning strike than from the swine flu.

I suppose that if they made a shot that would cause a person to lose weight, quit smoking, and overcome all the poor decisions about diet and exercise we make, people would be lining up for that, too. It is hard work to reduce the risk of heart disease. Quitting smoking is not easy. Changing your dietary habits is hard. It takes more work to ride a bicycle than to sit on the couch and watch TV. Reducing the odds that you'll die of heart disease is not easy, but it can be done. And when the odds are so stacked against us, why wouldn't everyone want to try?

Right?

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